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Texas Holdem Pot Odds - How To Figure Out Pot Odds
January 2, 2008
We’ve all heard that poker is not a card game played with people, but a people game played with cards. Still, not matter how well you read other players, knowing your poker math will help you use those reads even better.Fortunately pot odds are not hard to grasp in concept, and with a little practice they can be applied on the fly while at the table. Instead of throwing a bunch of theory at you, I think it’s best to start with some simple examples: The game is 1/2 Limit Hold’em. You hold A-Q and the board is 4-8-K-2. The pot is $12, and you are heads up against a player who has bet the turn. Now the pot contains $14, and it’s $2 to you to make the call. Should you call? First we need to make the relatively safe assumption that if a diamond comes on the river you will win the pot. You know what 6 of the 52 cards in the deck are, and of the 46 you don’t know, 9 are the diamonds you want to see. So the chances of getting a card you like is 9 out of 46, or 9 (for) to 37 (against). We can break this down to 4.1 – 1. Roughly for every 5 times you are in this situation, you’ll win once. So we want to win enough money the one time we win to make up for the 4.1 times we lose. So we need to win 4.1 times what the bet is when we do win. In our example, we have to call $2 into a pot with $14 in it. We have the potential to win at least 7 times what we have to call – so call! You have a 7-1 pot odds on a 4.1-1 call. That’s all there is to it! It’s important to remember the odds of making a few simple draws. These are the odds of making your draw on the next card (on the turn after the flop, or on the river after the turn). Actually the odds are slightly better to make a draw on the river, because if your draw missed on the turn that means there is one fewer card in the deck that would not help your hand.
You can make your own table for any number of outs. Just remember on the flop you are trying to hit your outs out of 47 unknown cards, and on the turn there are 46 unknown cards. I have just such a table taped to my keyboard.So let’s try another example. This time you were able to limp from the button with some good suited connectors, say T-J. The flop came rainbow (and not even one of your suit), but is was checked around and you took the free card. Preflop there was one limper, you, and both blinds (4 bets X $1 = $4). The flop was 258, and the turn is the 9. Now the small blind bets the turn, and the other three opponents fold. It’s back to you with $4 + $2 in the pot and an open ended straight draw. No matter what, if you hit your straight you will have the absolute nuts. It costs you $2 to call with $6 already in, so you are getting 3-1 pot odds to make the call. But the odds of making your draw are only 4.8-1, so the one time that you make your straight you will not make enough money to make up for the 4.8 times you miss. Let your hand go and save your money for a better spot. Good luck at the tables, and don’t chase those gutshots unless there is a lot of money in the pot! - Frez Frez is Bonus Internet Poker’s writer on strategy and theory in most poker games. He has been playing poker for over 15 years between a mix of online and live games. If you would like advice or to have Frez look over a hand that you have question about you can email him here. Your questions will be posted on the site and/or monthly newsletter. frez @ bonusinternetpoker.com More Texas Holdem Strategy Articles |
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