Implied Pot Odds and Reversed Pot Odds in Texas Holdem

January 2, 2008

Part One covered simple pot odds with some Limit Hold’em examples. Part Two moved onto No Limit pot odds and bet sizing. Our final part will discuss implied odds and reverse implied odds.

Simply put, implied odds extends the idea of pot odds to include bets you may win on future rounds if you make the hand you are drawing to, and assumes you will not put any more money in the pot when you miss your draw.

Let’s go back and look at some of our examples from Parts One and Two to see how implied odds may have changed our decisions.

In Part One of pot odds we used this Limit Hold’em example: You were able to limp from the button with TJ. The flop came rainbow (and not even one of your suit), but was checked around and you took the free card. Preflop, there was one limper, you, and both blinds (4 bets X $1 = $4). The flop was 258, and the turn is the 9. Now the small blind bets the turn, and the other three opponents fold. It’s back to you with $4 + $2 in the pot and an open ended straight draw. No matter what, if you hit your straight you will have the absolute nuts. It costs you $2 to call with $6 already in, so you are getting 3-1 pot odds to make the call.

The problem is, we are a 4.8-1 underdog to make the draw. However, we know that the player in the SB is an aggressive player who will bet the river no matter what, then we can raise him if we make our hand and he will at least call. So now, aside from the $6 already in the pot we can be sure of making another $4 (2 big bets of $2 from the SB – don’t count your own river bets as winnings). That makes our implied pot odds $10-$2, or 5-1, which makes it OK to call on a 4.8-1 draw.

In Part Two of pot odds we used a No Limit example that had our opponent all in on the turn – let’s modify that so that we have a chance to make more money from him on the river if we make our flush: The game is 1/2 NL Hold’em. You hold AdQd and the board is 48K-2. The pot is 60, and you are heads up against a player who has bet $25 on the turn (and has $50 left). You’re sure he has AA so that only a diamond wins this pot for you. Should you call? His bet makes the pot $85 and it costs you $25 to call. So your pot odds are 85-25, or 17-5, or 3.2-1. We already know that we have a 4.1-1 chance of making our flush, so it looks like we cannot call here. However, we know from past hands that our opponent tends to go all the way with his AA hands and you are sure he will bet again on the river unless something scary like another King comes out – in which case won’t make your flush anyway. Once you make the call the pot will be $120 and your opponent is likely to bet all his remaining $50. That means in addition to the $85 in the pot (before you make put your $25 in) you can win another $50 when you make you hand. So in this example your $25 call can make you $135 if your flush comes. $135-$25 is 27-5, or 5.2-1. With a 4.1-1 chance of making your flush, you can call here.

Reverse implied odds, well, reverse the concept of implied odds. With RIOs we are concerned about the money we would lose if we made our hand. Go back to our previous example, except now our opponent has KK. If we make our flush with the 8 or 2, the board has paired and we will now lose to a full house. Then if we call our opponent’s river bet we are going to lose another $50 in addition to the $25 it cost us to call on the turn.

Anytime we are in a situation where making our hand does not give us the absolute nuts we are at risk to reverse implied odds. Drawing to a flush that is not the nut flush, having a flush on a paired board, having the bottom straight against the top straight, or even more rare situations like under boat against top boat are all situations where making our draw can be very expensive. Don’t get married to your non-nut hands!

Good luck,
Frez

Frez is Bonus Internet Poker’s writer on strategy and theory in most poker games. He has been playing poker for over 15 years between a mix of online and live games. If you would like advice or to have Frez look over a hand that you have question about you can email him here. Your questions will be posted on the site and/or monthly newsletter. frez @ bonusinternetpoker.com

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